Macalline (601828): Self-managed business moat deep commissioned business helps benefit market recovery

Macalline (601828): Self-managed business moat deep commissioned business helps benefit market recovery
Event: Macalline released the 2019 quarterly report, and the company achieved revenue of 35 in Q1 2019.35 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.4%; net profit attributable to mother 13.14 ppm, an increase of 11 years.14%; non-recurring gains and losses4. 66 ppm, of which the fair value measurement of investment real estate3.540 thousand yuan, the value-added income of investment and real estate of joint ventures and joint ventures assessed 0290,000 yuan, disposing of investment income of associates.1.2 billion; realized non-net profit 848 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.83%.Net cash flow from operating activities1.1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase. Proprietary business has a stable gross profit margin, and high leverage has dragged down profitability.The overall gross profit margin of the company in Q1 2019 was 70.94% (+0.36 points.), Net interest rate 39.41% (-4.36 points.), Period expense ratio (plus R & D expenses) 33. 81% (+4.8 points.).Among them, the sales expense ratio is 10.54% (-1.54pct); management expense ratio (plus research and development expenses) 10.47% (+0.58pct), financial expense ratio 12.81% (+2.69pct), mainly due to the increase in interest-bearing debt and rising financing costs.As of the end of 2018, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 59.With a 45% increase in leverage, the company is expected to further increase its long-term debt ratio and optimize its debt structure in 2019. Self-operated business: Our own shopping malls are stable and have high-quality growth.2019Q1 company’s self-employed business income19.200 million (+10.5%), gross profit margin 79.1% (+0.4); self-operated shopping malls (including joint ventures) income 20.600 million (+10.1%), gross margin of 78.3% (+0.4).The company operates 81 self-operated shopping malls (+1), and prepares 33 (+3), of which 23 are self-owned, and 10 are leased. The operating area is 6.63 million countries (+5 from the beginning of the period).650,000 countries).Among them, 1) Revenue from own shopping malls16.300 million (+14.1%), gross margin is 85.5%. In terms of revenue drivers, the operating area of its own shopping malls has increased every year.1%, the contribution of area growth is greater than the contribution of rent increase.2) Rental mall revenue 2.900 million (-5.8%), with a gross profit margin of 43%, an additional one; 3) Revenue from joint venture malls 1.3.6 billion (+4.3%), gross profit margin 67.8%. Entrusted business: It is expected to help the boom in the home market, and it is expected that the initial projects will be stable.As of the first quarter of 2019, the company operated 230 commissioned shopping malls (+2), and franchised home building materials stores / Industrial Street (not participating in subsequent operation and management) opened 24 (+2).We expect that as the overall 西安耍耍网 home market boom picks up, the intent of commissioning project partners will increase, and the project opening projects in 2019 will remain stable.At present, the company has obtained 357 reserve projects for land use rights certificates and land parcels. The overall reserve projects are more abundant and the asset-light model accelerates the sinking of channels while helping to continue to grow. Multi-services go hand in hand, strengthening the positioning of omnichannel flooding home business platform service providers.The company added construction, construction and design business in 2018, while the sales of goods and home improvement revenue in 2018 were 4%.660,000 yuan, an increase of 58 in ten years.3%, two types of business become new revenue growth points.On the operation side, the company made full use of the resources and platform advantages of the home industry to create a synergy between the Internet home improvement retail platform and the home shopping mall business to achieve customer source and supply chain sharing. At the same time, it joined hands with Tencent to create an IMP marketing platform to achieve quantitative analysis of big passenger flow data.Strengthen accurate diversion, reduce customer acquisition costs for home improvement and malls, and increase repurchase rates and customer unit prices in malls.The company’s positioning of inertial home platform service providers through platform construction was further strengthened. Investment suggestion: We believe that with the omnichannel flooding of the home business platform service provider positioning, along with the sinking of project management channels and business diversification, the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow steadily.We forecast the company to achieve revenue of 164 in 2019-21.1,184.6,200.1 ‰, an increase of 15 in ten years.2%, 12.5%, 8.4%, net profit of return to mother 52.5,58.7, 63.30,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.3%, 11.8%, 7.8%, corresponding EPS is 1.48, 1.65, 1.78 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating. Risk reminder: The degree of real estate boom reduces risks, and the development of projects under management is less than expected.