Hualan Biological (002007) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Heavy Fluence of Quadrivalent Influenza Boosts Q3 Performance Exceeds Expectations, R & D of Monoclonal Antibodies Steady Progress
Event: The company released three quarterly reports for 2019 and realized revenue26.
380,000 yuan, +29 a year.
60%; net profit attributable to mother 9.
64 ppm, +26 a year.
89%; net profit of non-attributed mothers 8.
92 ppm, ten years +31.
11%; operating net cash flow 7.
62 trillion, +5 for ten years.
79%; EPS 0.
The performance slightly exceeded market expectations.
Opinion: The volume of tetravalent influenza vaccine promotes Q3 performance to accelerate, which is expected to contribute to long-term flexibility.
The company’s Q1-3 single quarter revenue was 6.
3.6 billion, previously +23.
05%; net profit attributable to mother 2.
57 trillion, +25 for ten years.
The performance of Q3 accelerated significantly, mainly due to the large-scale distribution of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine Q3, which contributed to the flexibility.
A total of 4.62 million quadrivalent influenza vaccines were issued in Q1-3. It is expected to sell more than 4 million in Q3 and achieve revenue of about 500 million yuan. It is estimated that the revenue of blood products in Q3 will be about 700 million, of which albumin and Jing Cing respectivelyIncome 2?
$ 300 million.
It is expected that the annual sales of quadrivalent influenza are expected to exceed 8 million and achieve revenue of 8?
$ 900 million, an annual growth of about 40%; blood products are expected to achieve revenue of 28?
USD 2.9 billion, an increase of about 20%.
The expansion of the flu season and the increased distribution of influenza vaccines have led to a rapid increase in receivables.
Accounts receivable in Q3 increased significantly5.
1 ppm, an all-time high, and Q3 sales closed at 7.
25 trillion, significantly lower than the revenue of 12.
The US $ 3.6 billion is expected to be caused by the downstream reserve for the autumn and winter flu season and increased terminal distribution of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine. There is a certain settlement period, and the account is completely replaced in the quarter.
Cash flow is expected to improve from Q4 to Q1 next year.
The four major monoclonal antibodies advanced to phase III, and the big platform for biopharmaceuticals gradually took shape.
Bevacizum / Rituxima / Trastuzumab / Adalmum four major monoclonal antibodies have been advanced to Phase III clinical trials, which are expected to be listed after 2021. At that time, the company will become a “blood product + vaccine + antibody drug” trinityComprehensive biopharmaceutical leader.
Profit forecast, investment rating and estimation: The company is a domestic leader in blood products, with a rich product line layout, a large number of pulp stations, and a steady growth in blood product business; meanwhile, the volume of tetravalent influenza vaccine is expected to increase performance; the layout of antibody drugs has speed and differentiation.
Maintain forecast for EPS 0 of 19-21.
38 yuan, an annual increase of 22% / 19% / 16%, the current price corresponding to 19-21 years PE is 37/31/27 times, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: The number of approved blood products and vaccines issued exceeds expectations; the progress of antibody drug development approval is 武汉夜生活网 gradually expected.